SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Texas is holding one of the first primaries in the nation Tuesday for this year’s midterm elections. One of the most competitive and expensive Senate contests is unfolding there. Republican incumbent John Cornyn is fighting for his political career against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Houston Area Congressman Wesley Hunt. The Democratic side of the race has gotten a lot of national attention, too. Houston Public Media’s Andrew Schneider is following the race and joins us now. Hey, Andrew.
ANDREW SCHNEIDER, BYLINE: Hello.
DETROW: So what’s at stake here?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, is running for a fifth term. If he’s elected this fall and serves out a full term, he’ll become the longest-serving U.S. senator in Texas history. And more to the point, he’s one of the most senior senators in an institution where seniority still counts for a lot, particularly in the ability to steer federal dollars to your state. That seniority goes away if he loses the Republican primary or the general election to follow. As far as the rest of the country goes, Republicans can only afford to lose four seats in the Senate, any more than that and control flips to the Democrats. The Republicans are prepared to spend heavily to keep Texas in their column, and they’ve got a big fundraising advantage over Democrats.
DETROW: What’s the best way to think about why the Senate primary on the Republican side is so competitive this year?
SCHNEIDER: Well, the Republican Party of Texas has shifted steadily to the right over the course of Cornyn’s four terms, while he stayed more or less in the same place. Despite his voting record, he’s seen as less than a total supporter of President Trump, and that’s come back to haunt him. Paxton, who despite having a long history of legal troubles and the fact that he’s going through a very public, messy divorce, has long been a favorite of the state’s more conservative Republican voters. Meanwhile, Hunt has been focusing his attacks on Cornyn’s age. Cornyn is 74, and Hunt’s 44. Cornyn, for his part, has been spending heavily on ads targeting Paxton and Hunt. That’s made this race one of the most expensive Senate primaries in U.S. history. Now, under Texas law, if none of the candidates get more than 50% of the vote, the election goes to a run off. So it’s entirely possible the GOP primary won’t be resolved till late May.
DETROW: And the Democratic primary has gotten so much national buzz as well. Catch us up to speed there.
SCHNEIDER: Dallas Area Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett’s facing off against Austin state Representative James Talarico. Both have unusually high name recognition across the state – Crockett because she’s been a very vocal critic of Trump in the House, Talarico in part because of his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast and more recently, an unaired interview for “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” that went viral on YouTube. Now, polling for this primary has been all over the place, but the odds are we will have a definite winner on March 3, which means she or he will be able to pivot to the general election much sooner than the Republicans.
DETROW: And of course, as of this weekend, the U.S. is engaged in a war with Iran now. I’m curious what you’ve heard from the campaign trail about this.
SCHNEIDER: All three Republican candidates put out statements praising Trump’s attack on Iran – Cornyn by email, Paxton and Hunt by social media. On the Democratic side, Crockett blasted Trump saying Congress has the sole power to declare war. She called on Congress to immediately pass a war powers resolution. Talarico posted a shorter social media message saying no more forever wars.
DETROW: Big picture – Texas has pockets of blue, but it is a deeply Republican state. How competitive is this seat looking ahead of the midterms?
SCHNEIDER: Last time the Democrats won a statewide election in Texas was more than 30 years ago. So whoever the Democratic nominee is will have an uphill fight in the fall. That said, most polls suggest the Democrat will have a better chance in the general election if Cornyn loses his primary.
DETROW: That is Houston Public Media’s Andrew Schneider. Thank you so much.
SCHNEIDER: You’re welcome.
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