With Virginia vote, Democrats gain edge over Trump’s national GOP redistricting push

As time runs out before the midterm elections, Virginia took a step on Tuesday to counter and possibly surpass President Trump’s national effort to redraw congressional voting maps in favor of the GOP.

Voters narrowly approved a Democratic-backed constitutional amendment to sideline the state’s redistricting commission and let lawmakers directly implement a new map. The Virginia delegation to the U.S. House is currently six Democrats and five Republicans and could go to 10-to-1 under the new map.

The move still faces court challenges but could put Democrats ahead in tilting House seats their way — for now.

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Florida lawmakers might be up next. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has called on them to meet next week and consider redistricting that could favor Republicans picking up more seats.

The debate in Virginia sounded a lot like it did in other states. Opponents said it would make the state’s delegation in the House favor Democrats much more heavily than the proportion of Democratic and Republican voters in the state. Proponents argued that it’s not about what’s going on in the state but about the moves Trump has prompted across the country in Republican-led states.

Redistricting divides up votes and Trump pushed for an edge this fall

Redistricting is when states redraw district lines, which usually happens at the start of a decade when the U.S. census count determines how many seats each state has in the House of Representatives. Gerrymandering is when politicians purposely group voters to benefit one party or another.

Currently, Republicans have control of the U.S. House with just a few seats more than Democrats. But the party in control of the White House usually loses seats in the midterms.

Trump has pushed for mid-decade redistricting and prompted Republicans in Texas to draw a new map that could help them win five seats held now by Democrats. Democrats in California led a redistricting plan — with voter approval similar to Virginia — that counters Texas with five additional Democratic-leaning districts.

North Carolina and Missouri lawmakers redistricted one seat in each state toward Republicans. In an already-scheduled redrawing, Ohio created two more seats that slightly lean toward the GOP. All of those changes could give Republicans nine more seats.

With the move by Virginia, Democrats have gained an edge in 10 seats across the country: five in California, four in Virginia and one court-ordered change in Utah.

Republican lawmakers in the redistricting debate have said maintaining a hold on the House is important for Trump’s agenda and keeping Democrats from launching investigations of his administration or, as Trump has said, impeaching him.

Ultimately, the race for the House will depend on how people vote and whether parties can hold onto the seats they already have, as well as win any new ones. A big wave one way or the other would make redistricting less important.

Most of the states that were able or willing to redistrict have made their move

When Trump started his redistricting effort, it seemed Republicans had more opportunities to remake the maps than Democrats because, among other reasons, they control more state legislatures.

But Republicans in Kansas and Indiana did not answer Trump’s call. In Indiana, Republicans voted against redistricting despite Trump’s threats to support opponents against them in the primaries.

And Democratic efforts to redistrict in Maryland have been blocked by Democrats in the state Senate, where there hasn’t been enough support to bring it to a vote.

With primaries for Congress underway around the country, Florida might have the last word. Republican Gov. DeSantis has called lawmakers back to the Capitol next week, and redistricting is one of the items on the agenda.

But after Democrats made gains in a couple of recent special elections in Florida, it’s unclear if Republicans in the state will want to risk making their current seats more competitive by reaching for more. That can happen as a party tries to divide voters up in new ways.

There’s one other factor on the horizon, though. The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case that could end up weakening the federal Voting Rights Act. If that makes it harder to mount court challenges against racial gerrymandering — redistricting that undermines the voting power of minority communities — a couple more GOP-led states could try to fast-track voting map changes before the election.

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