AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Late last night, President Trump took to Truth Social to say that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to the outlines of a deal. He said the U.S. would be holding off on new attacks on Iran for now. But with the war entering its sixth month, what would it take to actually reach a deal?
Ariane Tabatabai is vice president of research for security and defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She also served in the State and Defense Departments during the Biden administration. Welcome to the program.
ARIANE TABATABAI: Thanks for having me back, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So we don’t have any details here about the outlines of this potential deal other than Iran totally reopening the Strait of Hormuz and an end to, quote, “Iran’s nuclear threat.” Given those demands – and they sound, you know, kind of deja vu there – do you see a deal that could bring lasting peace?
TABATABAI: Yeah, they do sound a bit like a deja vu. This is along the same lines of the memorandum of understanding that was signed between the United States and Iran in June. And that is by design. The MOU back in June was supposed to pave the way for a deal that would sustainably end this conflict. It has not yet done so.
And it is important to note that if we’re still going based on this MOU, that kicked off a 60-day clock that would essentially allow the two sides to come together and to refine the details that would ultimately be in this deal. And again, we don’t seem like we’re further along now than we were just a couple of months ago. And we’re getting quickly to the end of the 60 days without knowing exactly what a deal would achieve.
RASCOE: Well, does Iran take President Trump’s statements, which are contradictory at times, at face value? Or do they see them as a negotiating strategy?
TABATABAI: I think they see the president’s statements and actions as a negotiating strategy. I mean, you know, the president seemingly threatens to destroy the whole of the Iranian civilization one day, threatens to target their civilian infrastructure and, just to borrow a term that he used in his first term, to bring about fire and fury.
And then within hours, he typically walks it back, generally, as we see from reporting, because, you know, U.S. partners in the region pick up the phone and say, hey, President Trump. We actually don’t want further escalation because this is really affecting all of those countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others are seeing, you know, the conflict really spill over into their countries.
So, you know, there is this cycle that we’ve entered into for months now where we’re seeing periods of escalation and escalatory rhetoric followed by, hey, we’re very close to a deal, we’re going to get there – and essentially walking back the threats.
RASCOE: Well…
TABATABAI: So, you know, I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily. And I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we’re in.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, what would an offramp for this conflict look like?
TABATABAI: Well, an offramp for this conflict would look exactly like the kind of deal that is apparently on the table. It would essentially settle the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. It would reopen the straits and would allow for freedom of navigation. And it would actually determine the details for the Iranian nuclear program and make sure that international inspectors are back in the country, ensuring that Iran’s nuclear activities are merely peaceful.
However, there are a number of challenges on both sides here, which is why I am not convinced that we’re going to see a deal. And those are both on the Iranian domestic side of things but also on the U.S. domestic side. Not to mention Israel and Iran’s proxies in the region, including the Houthis, who have now entered this conflict, it seems, in full force.
RASCOE: I want to ask you about the Trump administration’s nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. It does lack some of the oversights that would prevent or prohibit the development of nuclear weapons. Are you worried that could complicate reaching a nuclear deal with Iran?
TABATABAI: I certainly think it does set a troubling precedent, in large part because it does not – and we don’t know everything about the deal yet. But it does not allow for robust – a robust role for the International Atomic Energy Agency, and that would be needed in any deal with Iran to ensure its peaceful nature.
RASCOE: That’s Ariane Tabatabai with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
TABATABAI: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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