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Poll Shows Rural Battlegrounds Backing Romney

The nation’s smallest and most remote places are providing Mitt Romney’s biggest margins in battleground states as the 2012 presidential race enters its final weeks.

In fact, rural counties are keeping Romney competitive in the states that are now up for grabs. That’s what a new bipartisan survey indicates. The poll also finds that President Obama’s rural support has plunged since 2008.

The telephone survey of 600 likely voters in rural counties in nine battleground states was conducted Sept. 15-18. A bipartisan polling team produced the survey for the Center for Rural Strategies, a Kentucky-based group trying to attract attention to rural issues.

The rural voters polled favored Romney by 14 points, giving him 54 percent. They said Romney would do a better job with the economy (54 percent), with rural issues (47 percent) and with sharing their values (52 percent). More than half are comfortable with Romney as commander in chief and with him keeping the nation safe and secure.

President Obama garnered 40 percent, a seven-point dive from rural battleground voting four years ago.

“Rural areas in this country are very tough for President Obama,” says Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a polling firm for Democrats. Greenberg conducted the bipartisan poll and provided analysis.

“Obama’s lead is opening up primarily in urban and suburban areas,” Greenberg says. “It’s all the more reason that Mitt Romney needs rural America because it’s the only place where he’s really strong.”

Greenberg’s pollsters found a rock-solid Romney supporter in Stevens Point, Wis., when 66-year-old Donald Young answered the phone.

“Romney has a business background,” Young tells NPR. That’s key for Young because he says he was forced to retire from his painting business when the economy soured.

“Romney will do something to create a friendly business climate, and [businesses] will open up and start hiring and developing,” Young adds.

The economy also has a 2008 Obama supporter now ready to vote for Romney.

“I just thought we’d be in a lot better position here in the United States than we are,” says 26-year-old Nicole Heeringa, a single mother of two who works in a candy store in Waupun, Wis.

“Not a lot has been done with our economy,” Heeringa continues. “I just want the economy to get better.”

Republican pollster and political consultant Glen Bolger supervised the rural battleground survey and also provided analysis. He says rural voters are “going back to their more traditional voting patterns.”

Republicans were in charge in 2008, Bolger says, and rural voters joined most of the rest of the electorate in saying, ” ‘We need a change.’ Now you’ve got the Democrats controlling the White House [and] Senate all four years and the House for two years. People are [again] saying, ‘Well, that’s not working. It’s time for a change.’ ”

The poll indicates that Romney’s rural support is weakest among women. Obama polled better than Romney on only one question: Who would do a better job of addressing the needs and concerns of women? The president scored five points better.

Some of the women who said they were committed to Romney admitted to being ambivalent in followup interviews with NPR.

Obama “is just more appealing,” says Erin Jordan, a 24-year-old nurse from Gallipolis, Ohio. “Even doing things like going on late-night shows like Jimmy Fallon and doing those little rap things. … It just makes him more approachable.”

When Jordan thinks of Mitt Romney, “I picture my dad,” she says. “My dad’s not always firm in what he believes in politically, I guess.”

But Romney may still get Jordan’s vote because, as a nurse, she’s troubled about changes in health care under Obama, and she’s concerned about more change if he’s re-elected.

Still, the volatility encourages Democratic pollster Greenberg.

“I actually think it’s possible that Obama picks up more support in rural areas, which will just bolster a growing lead, frankly,” she says.

Republican Bolger disagrees.

“This is a really polarized electorate that we’ve got in 2012. There’s not a lot of movement,” Bolger says. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for the president to chip away at Mitt Romney’s big rural advantage.”

In fact, there isn’t much rural support up for grabs if the new survey reflects reality. Only 2 percent of those surveyed are undecided or noncommittal. Four percent indicated solid support for Libertarian Gary Johnson or another candidate. Only 3 percent were soft or leaning when they said they preferred Romney or Obama.

Romney appears to have the rural margin he needs to be competitive in battleground states. And Obama has failed, it seems, to hold on to enough of the rural voters who helped him become president.

Additional analysis of the survey is available at the Daily Yonder, a rural news service from the Center for Rural Strategies.

Copyright 2024 NPR

Howard Berkes is a correspondent for the NPR Investigations Unit.

Since 2010, Berkes has focused mostly on investigative projects, beginning with the Upper Big Branch coal mine disaster in West Virginia in which 29 workers died. Since then, Berkes has reported on coal mine and workplace safety, including the safety lapses at the Upper Big Branch mine, other failures in mine safety regulation, the resurgence of the deadly coal miners disease black lung, and weak enforcement of grain bin safety as worker deaths reached record levels. Berkes was part of the team that collaborated with the Center for Public Integrity in 2011 resulting in Poisoned Places, a series exploring weaknesses in air pollution regulation by states and EPA. In 2015 and 2016, Berkes collaborated with ProPublica on Insult to Injury, a series of stories about a "race to the bottom" in workers' compensation benefits across the country, which won the IRE Medal from Investigative Reporters & Editors, the nation's top award for investigative reporting, among other major journalism awards. Berkes has garnered four IRE awards for investigative reporting since 2014.

Before moving to the Investigations Unit, Berkes spent a decade serving as NPR's first rural affairs correspondent. His reporting focused on the politics, economics, and culture of rural America. Based in Salt Lake City, Berkes reported on the stories that are often unique to non-urban communities or provide a rural perspective on major issues and events. In 2005 and 2006, he was part of the NPR reporting team that covered Hurricane Katrina, emphasizing impacts in rural areas. His rural reporting also included the effects of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq on military families and service men and women from rural America, including a disproportionate death rate among troops from rural areas. Berkes has covered the impact of rural voters on presidential and congressional elections.

Berkes has also covered eight summer and winter Olympic games, beginning with the 1984 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. His reporting in 1998 about Salt Lake City's Olympic bid helped transform a largely local story about suspicious payments to the relatives of members of the International Olympic Committee into an international ethics scandal that resulted in Federal and Congressional investigations.

Berkes' Olympic and investigative reporting have made him a resource to other news organizations, including The PBS Newshour, CNN, MSNBC, A&E's Investigative Reports, the British Broadcasting Corporation, the French magazine L'Express, Al Jazeera America and others.

In 1981, Berkes became one of NPR's first national reporters and was based in Salt Lake City, where he pioneered NPR's coverage of the interior of the American West and public lands issues. He traveled thousands of miles to every corner of the region, driving ranch roads, city streets, desert washes, and mountain switchbacks, to capture the voices and sounds that give the region its unique identity.

Berkes' stories are heard on Morning Edition, All Things Considered, and Weekend Edition, and he has served as a substitute host of Morning Edition and Weekend All Things Considered.

An easterner by birth, Berkes moved west in 1976, and soon became a volunteer at NPR member station KLCC in Eugene, Oregon. His reports on the 1980 eruptions of Mt. St. Helens were regular features on NPR and prompted his hiring by the network. Berkes is sometimes best remembered for his story that provided the first detailed account of the attempt by Morton Thiokol engineers to stop the fatal 1986 launch of the Space Shuttle Challenger. Berkes teamed with NPR's Daniel Zwerdling for the report, which earned a number of major national journalism awards. In 1989, Berkes followed up with another award-winning report that examined the efforts to redesign the Space Shuttle's rocket boosters.

In 2016, Berkes revisited the 1986 Challenger story with an update on one of the booster rocket engineers who tried to stop the Challenger launch and who was an anonymous source in the Berkes-Zwerdling report. The engineer, 89-year-old Bob Ebeling, was frail and in hospice care when he told Berkes that he still shouldered guilt for the deaths of the Challenger astronauts. The resulting story prompted hundreds of NPR listeners and readers to write supportive messages, which helped ease Ebeling's guilt. He died a few weeks later – at peace, his family said.

A multi-year investigation of a resurgence of black lung disease among coal miners, and an epidemic of the most severe stage of the disease, resulted in a PBS Frontline television documentary in January 2019, which included Berkes as on-air correspondent and narrator.

Berkes has covered Native American issues, the militia movement, neo-nazi groups, nuclear waste, the Unabomber case, the Montana Freemen standoff, polygamy, the Mormon faith, western water issues, mass shootings, and more. His work has been honored with more than 40 major journalism awards, including those given by the American Psychological Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Society of Professional Journalists, the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial, the Joan Shorenstein Center at Harvard University, the Online News Association, the National Press Club, the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard, the UCLA Anderson Loeb Awards, and the National Association of Science Writers.

Berkes also won five Edward R. Murrow Awards for investigative, sports, feature, and online audio reporting.

Berkes has trained news reporters in workshops across the country and served as a guest faculty member at the Poynter Institute for Media Studies. In 1997, he was awarded a Nieman Foundation Journalism Fellowship at Harvard University.

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