MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Just a few hours to go now before Election Day and determining who will be the next president of the United States. But with polls showing an extremely tight race, a narrow victory by either candidate could open up the possibility of a contested election. That could mean legal challenges or, more worrying, the possibility of post-election political violence like we saw on January 6. After that failed attempt to subvert the election results, three retired U.S. generals wrote in The Washington Post, quote, “we are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time” – next time as in now, as in 2024. Well, Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton was one of the authors of that piece, and when I spoke to him today, I asked what lessons the military has learned since last time around.
PAUL EATON: Murphy’s law is if it can go wrong, it will go wrong at the worst possible time. The notice to the military that 1/6 provided was we had some folks who, as veterans and a handful of active duty, behave badly. We have gone deep into the psyche of the commands, and there has been a considerable effort to identify any notion of extremism, any notion that the oath that we all swore – to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic – that that is clearly understood, the chain of command is clearly understood, and that national and local security forces are to be counted upon to do the right thing.
KELLY: Yeah.
EATON: We expect absolutely that that will be the case.
KELLY: To pick up on what you just raised about chain of command, the military, as you know better than anyone, is trained – salute, you follow your orders. What happens in a scenario in which the military is trying to follow orders, but you have a contested election, and more than one person may be claiming to be commander in chief?
EATON: Mary Louise, that is precisely the question that occurred when we were doing our own analysis. The notion that someone will declare victory early, that possibility has become more likely as we see the behaviors in President Trump. And at that point, we simply say, well, the election is underway. We have not counted all votes, and we expect that the executive branch and that all states’ polling places and counting locations are going to be alert to that possibility, yet they will continue to drive on, count the votes so that we can have a certifiable election.
KELLY: So let me just ask directly the basic question of – how worried are you? And I will frame that in this context. Other retired officers have been raising concerns around this year’s election. One of them is another retired army general, who you probably know, Joe Votel. He just took part in a University of Pennsylvania study that gamed out the aftermath of a contested election. That report concluded, and I quote, “civil unrest in the face of the 2024 presidential election and beyond is a realistic, if not likely, possibility” – realistic, if not likely. How does that line up against your expectations?
EATON: Yes, I do know Joe Votel, and he is one of our finest, most sober leaders. I admire him greatly, and I absolutely agree. It is a possibility. And we typically – we in the military go to the worst-case possibility. What’s the worst that can happen? And then you organize and plan on how you will mitigate that. I expect our state and local law authorities are going to be thoroughly involved in this, as well as our National Guard throughout the nation. And I expect that federal forces to include the military are equally prepared and have planned for a – the possibility that you could have civil unrest, and it could be substantial.
KELLY: You described the worst-case scenario, that it’s the job of the military to prep for the worst case. What’s the best case that the military is – we’re just not thinking about them at all after the election ’cause it’s so not even in play?
EATON: Well, the military will always have a place to defend our vital national interest. And domestic security, I would say, is our vital national interest.
KELLY: That is retired U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton. General Eaton, thank you.
EATON: Thank you very much, Mary Louise. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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