AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
There's been a boom in clean energy across the U.S. - solar panels popping up on rooftops, wind farms dotting hillsides. Technology has improved. Prices have fallen, but there's also been hefty federal subsidies. Now, that GOP spending bill of President Trump's that passed the House, that would end federal tax credits for solar and other types of clean energy. We wondered what the effects might be on energy costs for consumers. That's where Doug Lewin comes in. He's a clean energy consultant and host of the "Energy Capital" podcast, and he joins us now from Austin. Welcome to the program.
DOUG LEWIN: Hey. Thanks for having me.
RASCOE: So remind us what all these tax credits are about and why do some Republicans - including, you know, all the lawmakers who voted for this bill - oppose these tax credits.
LEWIN: Yeah, so they come in two different flavors. There's the investment tax credit, which is 30% of the cost of an entire project. And then there's what's called a production tax credit. So for every megawatt hour, every unit of energy produced, there's a payment that goes to those sources. Why they don't like them? I mean, you know, there's a number of stated reasons. I think the most usual stated reason is they don't like subsidies. But I don't think we saw in the, you know, quote-unquote, "big, beautiful bill" any reduction in tax credits for oil and gas, some of which have been around for over a hundred years. So, you know, it's hard for me to sort of represent what they're thinking on this 'cause I don't think it makes a lot of sense.
RASCOE: Well, how could this affect people's electric bills? Because I think a lot of people, when you think of solar and wind and stuff like that, you think coal is, like, cheap. So if these - you know, if we're using more coal or gas, people might think that might help their electric bills, but how will this actually affect electric bills?
LEWIN: Yeah, so electric bills would go up. There's some really good modeling on this. Jesse Jenkins, out of Princeton at his NEX Lab (ph), did modeling. And I focus on Texas. I look right away at Texas, and electric costs would go up something like 17% in the next four or five years. And the reason for that, Ayesha, is that, like, actually, where we are now, renewables are cheaper than alternative sources of energy like coal and gas. And I use that term alternative very intentionally because we used to refer to renewables as alternative. But if you look globally, last year, 90% of what was installed was wind, solar or storage - globally, 90%. And it's not because of environmental factors that may factor in here or there, but it's mostly because of economics. The International Energy Agency said in 2022 that solar was the cheapest form of electricity ever, and that was three years ago. The costs have come down even more, and we've seen huge cost declines in batteries. So pairing renewables with batteries is really a fantastic solution, just for grid reliability and affordability, to say nothing of having lower emissions.
RASCOE: The White House calls these tax credits a green corporate welfare subsidy. Given that clean energy is a pretty mature industry now, should it really be the recipient of U.S. tax dollars?
LEWIN: Look, here's the way I think of this - every single energy source we have is subsidized. Nuclear is the most subsidized form of energy ever. No nuclear plant gets built without government support. Oil and gas - again, the oil and gas industry is a pretty mature industry, but we still have subsidies available for it. Why do we have subsidies for energy? Because people like low-cost energy. So if you want to take away subsidies, it's going to be a very unpopular thing to do. They're going to have a lot of very angry constituents, very angry business owners. So, yeah, if we want to get rid of the subsidies, let's get rid of all of them, and everybody's energy will go up 50% or 100%, and you'll have people out in the streets with pitchforks, and then they'll put the subsidies back in place.
RASCOE: Do you believe that there is a conservative argument for supporting clean energy? I mean, as you said, you're based in Texas. That's a pretty red state. What is the argument to Republican lawmakers that, you know, supporting clean energy is beneficial?
LEWIN: Oh, I think there's absolutely a conservative argument. I mean, you can just start with most of the economic - the direct economic benefits of wind and solar installations are happening in Republican districts. Something like 80% of the benefits of those tax credits is flowing to Republican areas of the country. So that's one of them, is just the benefits to rural economies all across this country.
RASCOE: Well, I mean, that's definitely a different pitch for renewables because in many ways, the tax credits were intended to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels and to help fight climate change. If the tax credits were to go away, what happens to that fight when it comes to climate change?
LEWIN: Well, you know, it's very interesting. I actually think, particularly at the moment we're at right now in 2025, climate is obviously a very important concern, but it's actually secondary or even tertiary to economic growth. There is no way we are going to win the AI race against China without developing massive amounts of power. Right now, economic growth and lower emissions are possible in a way that they weren't even certainly 10 years ago, and probably even three or four years ago. And that trend is actually accelerating. It's actually becoming more and more true that we can both increase economic growth and lower emissions at the same time.
RASCOE: That's Doug Lewin, CEO of Stoic Energy Consulting. Thank you so much for being with us.
LEWIN: Thanks, Ayesha.
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