AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The Israeli government says it unleashed 80 more attacks on Iran overnight. Fuel depots burned, lighting the night sky bright orange. Roads out of Tehran are packed with people fleeing the capital city. In Israel, Iranian missiles appear to have evaded Israeli defense systems and destroyed a residential block. Iran was scheduled to attend the next round of nuclear talks with the U.S. later today, but those talks have been canceled. Ali Vaez is Iran project director for Crisis Group, and he joins us now. Welcome to the program.
ALI VAEZ: It's good to be with you, Ayesha.
RASCOE: Back in March, you told my colleague, Scott Simon, that Iran would not negotiate with the U.S. with a gun to its head. From Iran's perspective, has that trigger been pulled?
VAEZ: Absolutely. And that is why the Iranians have, in the past few days, noted that they will not return to the negotiating table. In fact, there was a round of negotiations that was scheduled to take place today in Oman between Iran and the U.S.. And the Iranians have also said that they would stop further cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog. So this is a situation that has turned from bad to worse.
RASCOE: Have you been speaking to people inside of Iran? And if so, what are you hearing from them? Are they rallying around the regime, or do they hope that the attacks might bring down the government?
VAEZ: Look, Iran is a country of 90 million, and there's diversity and a range of views inside the country. There are some who hate this regime and are happy if it comes down at any price, even if the price is the destruction of the entire country. And there are core constituents and supporters of the regime who are now much more zealously committed to trying to preserve it. And then I would say there are the majority of the people in between, who blame their own government but also blame Israel for striking Iran and targeting civilians. So there is really a range of views, but what we have seen on the streets so far hasn't been any protest against the regime but rather protests and rallying around the flag.
RASCOE: Israel has also been launching airstrikes on Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In addition to bombing Gaza and the West Bank, does Israel have any regional support for these attacks on Iran?
VAEZ: It does not. It - in fact, the Arab Gulf states, which are now - have a much better relationship with Iran and have deescalated their own tensions with Iran in the past few years, are extremely worried about expansion of this conflict that would basically turn them into collateral damage and undermine all of their lofty economic development plans in the next few years. And countries like Jordan and Iraq are basically sandwiched between Iran and Israel. Iranian missiles fly overhead and Israeli jets in the other direction - and so the entire region is panicked and worried about where this is going and how it will end.
RASCOE: Well, Israel launched its attacks on Iran, it said, to destroy Tehran's ability to build a nuclear weapon. But now that Iran is under attack from a nuclear power, does that give them more justification to develop their own nuclear weapon?
VAEZ: Well, it does. Iran has already paid the price economically for a nuclear weapon through years of sanctions, and now it is clear that its conventional deterrence - its defensive systems and its offensive ballistic missiles - have not protected it from an Israeli strike. And its regional network has also been degraded, its partners and proxies in the region. And so it's basically left with no option other than the ultimate deterrent, which only comes in the form of nuclear weapons.
But the question really is, after the dust settles after this war, how much of Iran's nuclear program remains? We know that Iran would be able to reconstitute its nuclear program. U.S. intelligence had assessed that an Israeli strike could only delay the program by a few months. But it is possible that it would be longer, by a year, but in any case, Iran still has the know-how and the capacity to reconstitute its nuclear program.
RASCOE: Is there something that President Trump or the U.S. could do to deescalate this situation?
VAEZ: Absolutely. In fact, President Trump is the only person who can stop this and prevent it from turning into a disastrous regional conflagration by pursuing a dual-track approach. First, holding Israel back by threatening that if Israel continues this conflict which puts Americans in harm's way - there are 40,000 American troops in the region. There are hundreds of thousands of Americans in Israel. And he needs to basically use American leverage of saying, if Israel continues, he would stop delivery of offensive weapons to Israel.
And he also needs to threaten Iran that if Iran continues this conflict, the U.S. would get directly involved. And of course, in order to bring this to a sustainable conclusion, then he also needs to put a fair, reasonable deal, nuclear deal with Iran on the table and offer a sanctions relief.
RASCOE: That's Crisis Group's Ali Vaez. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
VAEZ: My pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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