Many people are using interactive COVID-19 maps and data trackers to decide where it is and isn’t safe to travel. But epidemiologists say the maps aren’t always a good indicator of what’s happening on the ground. They ask Virginians to protect themselves regardless of where “hot spots” crop up.
Residents can, however, go to https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/ to get a range of statistics. They can choose whether to view total case counts or case rates and further break down the data.
The Mayo Clinic is another source for tracking COVID-19 cases.It’s interactive map shows average daily cases per 100,000 people, with “hot spots” being deeper red and counties with lower case rates being light red or orange.
But Dr. Julia Murphy, a member of the COVID-19 and health information teams in the Office of Epidemiology,says depending on what statistic you look at — and when — you can get different impressions of the transmission and circulation.
That’s why, she says, the state presents multiple ways of looking at the statistics. There’s a total case count, but there’s also the total number of cases per 100,000 people within a locality, which she says is a good statistic for comparison among localities.
“All of those combined help people to see what exactly is happening in their locality and also helps inform the kinds of prevention messages that we continue to highlight in our communication with the public,” Murphy said.
VDH goes even further to include trends over time, which results in an even better community transmission statistic.
But Murphy points out that, right now, all localities in Virginia are experiencing either high or substantial levels of transmission.
“We would want to encourage people to use prevention measures wherever you go in Virginia,” she said. “Regardless of, say, simply the total number of cases that have been reported in that locality.”
But why do transmission rates vary so vastly from one county to the next? Specifically, why do some counties appear to be "islands" with next to no transmission rate, that are surrounded by counties with high rates?
It can be influenced by a number of factors, including when labs come in, a reflection of how quickly a case can be reached for investigation. That means even if a locality looks “safe,” it may not be.
Dr. Michael Stevens, VCU Health’s interim hospital epidemiologist and director of the Travel & Tropical Medicine Clinic, agreed with Murphy that the data aren’t fully indicative of the current situation.
“I think those data maps are historical at this point,” he said.
There’s already some lag in the reporting data, he says, and now the Omicron variant is spreading rapidly.
“So I would never use that to say, ‘This town that looks like it’s doing better than the rest of Virginia, this is the safe town, so I’m not going to wear a mask there,’”Stevens said.
The New York Times reported Thursday that the Omicron variant is driving new record-breaking daily and weekly cases counts in the U.S. Meanwhile private healthcare providers and local health departments are struggling to keep up with the demand for testing.
Federal health officials say the omicron variant causes less severe illness than previous COVID strains but is more transmissible.
