Four years after being booted out of power, and two years after their ranks were further decimated, Republicans are primed to take back control of the House of Representatives.
The current makeup of the Houe is 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, with two vacancies, one from each party.
My district-by-district analysis of all 435 House races shows the GOP winning more than the 39 seats to make John Boehner speaker. But how much more?
There are new forecasts of a Republican blowout, perhaps eclipsing what occurred in 1994, when the GOP picked up a net of 52 seats -- and gave them their first majority in 40 years. If that does occur on Tuesday, then these numbers will look pretty silly.
Nonetheless, I have Republicans winning 45 seats from the Democrats and losing four, for a net gain of 41 -- much lower than other calculations. Here are the seats that I think will switch:
AL 02 -- Martha Roby (R) ousts freshman Rep. Bobby Bright (D).
AZ 01 -- Paul Gosar (R) ousts freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D).
AZ 05 -- David Schweikert (R) ousts Rep. Harry Mitchell (D).
AZ 08 -- Jesse Kelly (R) ousts Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D).
AR 01 -- Rick Crawford (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Marion Berry (D), who is retiring.
AR 02 -- Tim Griffin (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Vic Snyder (D), who is retiring.
CA 11 -- David Harmer (R) ousts Rep. Jerry McNerney (D).
CO 04 -- Cory Gardner (R) ousts freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D).
DE AL -- John Carney (D) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Castle (R), who sought the GOP Senate nomination.
FL 02 -- Steve Southerland (R) ousts Rep. Allen Boyd (D).
FL 08 -- Dan Webster (R) ousts freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D).
FL 24 -- Sandy Adams (R) ousts freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D).
HI 01 -- Colleen Hanabusa (D) ousts freshman Rep. Charles Djou (R).
IL 10 -- Dan Seals (D) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is running for the Senate.
IL 11 -- Adam Kinzinger (R) ousts freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D).
IL 14 -- Randy Hultgren (R) ousts Rep. Bill Foster (D).
IN 03 -- Marlin Stutzman (R) wins the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Souder (R), who resigned in May. Because this is a vacant seat, it counts as a GOP pickup.
IN 08 -- Larry Bucshon (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), who is running for the Senate.
IN 09 -- Todd Young (R) ousts Rep. Baron Hill (D).
KS 03 -- Kevin Yoder (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Dennis Moore (D), who is retiring.
LA 02 -- Cedric Richmond (D) ousts freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R).
LA 03 -- Jeff Landry (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), who is running for the Senate.
MD 01 -- Andy Harris (R) ousts freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D).
MI 01 -- Dan Benishek (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Bart Stupak (D), who is retiring.
MI 07 -- Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) ousts freshman Rep. Mark Schauer (D).
MS 01 -- Alan Nunnelee (R) ousts Rep. Travis Childers (D).
NV 03 -- Joe Heck (R) ousts freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D).
NH 01 -- Frank Guinta (R) ousts Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).
NH 02 -- Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Paul Hodes (D), who is running for the Senate.
NJ 03 -- Jon Runyan (R) ousts freshman Rep. John Adler (D).
NM 02 -- Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) ousts freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D).
NY 29 -- Tom Reed (R) wins the seat vacated in March by Rep. Eric Massa (D).
NC 08 -- Harold Johnson (R) ousts freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D).
ND AL -- Rick Berg (R) ousts Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D).
OH 01 -- Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) ousts freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus (D).
OH 15 -- Steve Stivers (R) ousts freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D).
PA 03 -- Mike Kelly (R) ousts freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D).
PA 07 -- Pat Meehan (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak (D), who is running for the Senate.
PA 08 -- Former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) ousts Rep. Patrick Murphy (D).
PA 11 -- Lou Barletta (R) ousts Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D).
TN 06 -- Diane Black (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Bart Gordon (D), who is retiring.
TN 08 -- Steve Fincher (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. John Tanner (D), who is retiring.
TX 17 -- Bill Flores (R) ousts Rep. Chet Edwards (D).
VA 02 -- Scott Rigell (R) ousts freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D).
VA 05 -- Robert Hurt (R) ousts freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D).
WA 03 -- Jaime Herrera (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Brian Baird (D), who is retiring.
WV 01 -- David McKinley (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. Alan Mollohan (D), who was defeated for renomination in the Democratic primary.
WI 07 -- Sean Duffy (R) wins the seat being vacated by Rep. David Obey (D), who is retiring.
WI 08 -- Reid Ribble (D) ousts Rep. Steve Kagen (D).
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