Next year will be the first time since 2002 that Virginians have had both a Republican president and governor, when Gov. Jim Gilmore and President George W. Bush briefly overlapped. But there are many institutional reasons why a Republican in both Richmond and Washington don’t necessarily mean a massive change in state-level policy.
“What happens on the federal level doesn't seem to have a lot more effect than it used to,” said Jay Speer, executive director of the Virginia Poverty Law Center. “Maybe in a non-policy, attitude way. But the state policy makers are completely independent, of course, and deal with somewhat different issues.”
Both Youngkin and Virginia House Speaker Don Scott, a Democrat, also downplayed how much President-elect Donald Trump would affect state policy.
“I don't think the state Legislature does a lot of work with President Trump, because we're not working with Joe Biden now,” said Scott after the election. “I think Virginians understand that they expect us to do everything that we can, to expect to protect their freedom, and then to work where we can with the governor and with the federal government where we can.”
While Democrats in the legislature and Youngkin have some budget matters to work out, Virginia’s budget is largely set through June 2026. The General Assembly makes amendments in odd-numbered years, like in 2025, due to its two-year schedule. (Virginia’s fiscal years run from July 1–June 30, while the federal government’s are Oct. 1–Sept. 30.)
The biggest amendments would come if there are needed revenue adjustments, such as in case of changes in the economic forecast or federal spending. Virginia receives a large amount of federal money: The state Department of Planning and Budget projected federal grants and contracts would reach $22.3 billion, and federal grants and other contracts make up about 52% of nongeneral fund revenue.
“Spending on education, that's always a big part of the budget. If that gets reduced, then there's the question of whether Virginia is going to make it up or not,” said Speer.
Youngkin said Trump’s major influence on Virginia would be in terms of the state’s economy.
“I do believe that we will have good tailwinds coming out of Washington policy that are pro-business, not anti-business,” Youngkin told reporters Tuesday. “When we see more receipts, we can reduce taxes and we can invest in education and in law enforcement and in behavioral health and in our universities in K-12, that is a virtuous cycle that starts with having a vibrant economy.”
Trump has proposed moving 100,000 federal workers out of the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area and reclassifying them as political appointees.
Youngkin characterized Trump’s federal workforce proposals as a restructuring.
“I believe that he will do the same thing that may result in some job losses in federal government, I think that efficiencies often times do result in that,” he said.
Incoming U.S. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-10th) has said the changes to the federal workforce would cause a “self-imposed recession.” Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees, echoed that concern, pointing to $2 trillion in proposed budget cuts by those in Trump’s orbit — including Elon Musk — in a statement Tuesday.
“Budget cuts of this magnitude, coupled with the massive tax reductions Trump has said he will implement, will affect vital programs that tens of millions of Americans currently rely on for their financial security and their health and safety,” he said. “This includes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, food assistance for low-income families, veterans’ benefits and health care, and so much more.”
Ultimately, elected officials in Virginia will probably be looking ahead to next November’s elections instead of focusing on this year’s results.
“Regardless of how things went last week, there's going to be a lot of thinking about how things are going to play out next fall, as it always does. That probably has more effect on what happens than this election did,” said Speer.
